Here's a dissenting voice from another thread:
To: JF Quinnelly ( 883 )
From: Joseph G.
Sep 15 1996 11:27AM EST
Reply #887 of 890
we'll see; i see iomg below 5 within a year. below from memory.
(i)charts (a) see what was before the drop, csco had relatively steady rise ove prior 4
years, well behaved, 50% drop for a 100%/year growth rate company is not unusual,
takes a year to recover, not too much risk.(b) iomg was in s*t for 3 years, than had
unsustainable fast runup x100 in a year, no "rational" company fundamentals can
produce that, conclude: mania; drop of 80% off peak requires gain of 400% to get
even, now ask yourself, do you expect the company to grow 400% in the next year? a
"rational" man wouldn't, thus much overhead resistance, not much buyng enthusiasm.
(ii) i hope you realize that networking is a major future industy, and the #1 company is
going to be important player (i don't hold csco now); if intc made only pentiums and
nothing else they would be like amd; disc drives IS a niche industry, subject to fast
obsolecence; the only valid argument could be that good companies will branch out
elsewhere. i'd much rather hold bay or ca than iomg, sgt.
in general, most chips and drives are comodities, or will become comodities. patent
protection is not of much use as similar devices can be made with same functionality.
can't patent transistor, or disk drive, can only patent specific design; iomg industry is
already rather mature, best thing that can happen to it if sombody buys them.
good luck |
