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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives
SPY 695.17+0.2%4:00 PM EST
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To: chartseer who wrote (28732)1/28/2012 12:21:03 PM
From: Honey_Bee1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 221640
 
But I think you missed the point. There is a 65% chance the market will close higher regardless of what happens the first five days. Mark Hulbert wrote:

"Notice that, regardless of what happens over the first five days of January, history suggests that there is a 65% chance that the market will rise through year end. These odds improve only slightly once the market has risen over those first five trading days, and decline only slightly if the market falls — by 4 and 7 percentage points, respectively.

Not a lot to write home about, is there?

In fact, given volatility in the historical data, these differences are not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is more than a fluke. If this is not enough to dissuade you from paying much heed to this indicator, consider this: Over the last four decades, the pattern has been just the reverse of what it was previously. Since 1970, in fact, the odds of an “up” year were even higher following a down Dow over the first five days of January than following a rising Dow."

Read more: marketwatch.com
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