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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 314.52-0.6%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (55332)1/28/2012 1:38:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 95572
 
This is the weekly update of the Group and SOXM(SOX) tables in terms of earnings estimate and price changes.

First, let's look at the price changes. The Group made a small gain from the previous week to make its upward move to 4 weeks in a row. This is the second week over 400 for the Group. The SOX had a loss of 0.99 for the week to end its upward move at 3 weeks. The last time the SOX was up 3 weeks in a row was the week ending 1/7/11, over 1 year ago.

Next the earnings. For the Group, another drop in Curr Yr earnings to a new low of 26.03. This is a long fall from 40.49 set last 6/10/11. However, note the rise in Nxt Yr earnings for the last 3 weeks. This is largely the result of anticipation for better times ahead after the supposedly weak first half of 2012 is past. The low for Nxt Yr earnings was set the week ending 11/11/11.

The SOXM earnings are behaving a little differently. First of all, peak earnings numbers were both established the week ending 3/4/11 at 47.77 and 50.54. This week the numbers are 34.77 and 41.69. The 34.77 number is a new low, but the 41.69 is a nice jump upward from the previous week of 39.87.

The SOX is up 48.9 points in the last 4 weeks to its present value of 413.34. The earnings reporting period for this quarter is coming to a close shortly. While the outlook for the "semi/tech" area looks good based on recent reports, macro economic conditions in the U.S. and Europe are quite poor. Where does the SOX go from here? IMO it is anyone's guess, but I would not vote for a continued uptrend.






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