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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives
SPY 689.46-0.9%Feb 3 4:00 PM EST
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To: robert b furman who wrote (28836)2/1/2012 1:34:37 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™  Read Replies (2) of 222827
 
Claims Are Up, Not Down

In recent months, the headlines have been quick to point out that weekly initial unemployment claims have been dropping, noting the cheerful possibility of a nascent turnaround in the economy. Per usual, all you get to see is only a piece of the puzzle and a sound bite designed to please because bad news really doesn’t sell well at all. We have not presented our own charts in a while but today seems appropriate if only to provide a slightly different perspective. Thus, instead of highlighting initial claims versus continuing claims, we highlight continuing claims versus continuing claims. We heartily admit that initial claims are falling and of course, are cheering the decline but the current level of continuing claims remains higher than any back to a very brief surge that occurred in the late summer of 2005. As well, continuing claims are once again rising and now represent over four million souls still on the dole. Despite the decline in initial weekly claims, the number of those remaining on the unemployment rolls has increased by 941,386 since October 1st. That’s a 30% increase and is clearly not a good sign for those touting a recovery in the economy.



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