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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: carranza2 who wrote (469540)2/2/2012 11:32:50 PM
From: Maurice Winn1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 794042
 
C2, it's militarily difficult to stack up a huge force and then pull the plug and go home. The reason for the build up in the first place is because other means are unsuccessful and while the pressure helps convince the opponent of a better course of action [such as Libya took in agreeing to cancel noocular weaponry] it seems to not be very effective to simply act in a threatening manner. Actual follow through is normally needed.

So, unless Iran caves in, then conflict seems a done deal. Just as Saddam should have called a truce, called in the UN, retreated from Kuwait and been more generous with compliance with UN inspectors. But he didn't. Such personalities seem to not have a go into reverse switch.

So, we should expect destruction of various things in Iran and quite likely a beach head and maybe an outright invasion and conquest which as with Iraq would be a cake-walk, followed by Jihad guerillas. There are plenty of people in Iran who would like an ouster of the regime - see the huge rallies of recent times which were viciously suppressed.

There is USA military [and others] in Afghanistan, Kuwait and at sea surrounding Iran. There's geopolitical support for such an attack. India would think it a reasonable thing - anything to reduce the impetus of Islamic Jihad which is a continuing curse for them. Iran pretended to want to supply methane [pipeline to India] but what they really want is to fund and develop nukes under cover of generating electricity which India could do if it was electricity which is wanted.

"Occupy Hormuz" might be a UN strategy as part of a general threat reduction process.

Mqurice
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