<<This is a great company, with strong fundamentals, a promising
future, and a great CEO>>
Everybody keeps saying this, but from a stock appreciation standpoint, I'm not so sure and am having my doubts. I'm now long BAY with a significant position. I had a large position, sold at 38, and then started buying it back. I bought in too soon, and have been chasing it down since 38. I should have known better, but the "story" sounded good. I did not do my usual due diligence...and am underwater because of it.
I'm not a technical analyst, or a timer, but BAY's chart since Jan 1996 deserves study. It seems that once BAY crashes through it's 200 day MA, nothing positive happens until it is able to penetrate the 200 day MA on the return trip. BAY charged the 200 day MA unsuccessfully some 5 to 6 times in 1996 and early 1997 before finally breaking above this level in May or so. Like a roman candle, it's glow was short lived, because it broke down again in October 1997, penetrating its 50, 100, and 200 day MA. It has not been able to break out to the upside since, and if we are in for a repeat of history, we have about 12 months of bad road out in front of us. Is this the hallmark of a great company with strong fundamentals?? I'm not so sure anymore.
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