Mohan:
There is something about these estimates which you have so
so kindly provided in that URL which may explain why analysts have
almost always underated Dell.
The low estimate for quarter 4 of '97 to quarter 1 of 98 (58 vs 62) works out to be an increase of about 7% , or on the mean estimates about 9%.
This is completely at odds growth-wise with the physical evidence of what is going on at the Dell company.
A new factory opened in June, now producing 8000 computers
per day running double shift.
A new factory in Penyang
5 new buildings being erected in Round Rock to support sales
and service and administration efforts.
A new 570 acre tract purchased/leased for new production
facilities in Austin.
Internet sales go from $1 mil, to $2 mil to $3 mil /per day
in a matter of months. Infrastructure in place to support
ten times that amount.
Mean estimate $ 0.65 0.71
High estimate $ 0.73 0.84
Low estimate $ 0.58 0.62
All of this is part of Phase 3( Hi, three) pointed out by
Mikey at the stockholders meeting in July( so many months ago) When you see the speed at which those buildings are being
erected ( I saw the progress made in 4 months), it is apparent that
most of this will be complete within 2 years, 3 at most.A Production
rate 3, 4,or 5 times the present rate is a much higher growth rate than the 28% a year implied by the earnings estimates.
Please excuse my wordiness,Mohan, its pretty damn quiet
over here as opposed to Dallas and gee, well,I had to tell somebody. (ggggg)
Sig
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