CADE's long standing uptrend line was violated today....
I may be wrong, but I took a look at CADE's chart and found two
long term trendlines by connecting two of three high points in CADE's
past.
Point A: 2/17/94 -- cade hits a new intraday high of 1.16
Point B: 6/27/96 -- cade takes over two years to hit a new high of 2
Point C: 8/6/97 -- cade barely makes a new intraday high of 2.07
Longest Trendline: Connect Point A & B --
CADE bounced off this line on 10/28/97 at 2.5
Today, CADE violated this longest standing uptrend line intraday, but ended up closing above it. (as far as I can tell, the line is still at about 2.5 today)
A breakdown beneath this line would probably not bode well for CADE, though for how long I don't know. CADE's history since 1993 is one of long slow downtrends with fast short new highs.
Second long trendline: Connect Point B & C --
Here's the line CADE bounced off of today. Again, a violation of this line and even worse a breakdown below it would be bad. Especially since it would mean the first trendline was also broken.
More Info:
1) CADE closed today on its 100 day moving average -- this line was violated intraday as well, and it was the first violation of this line since CADE began its recent acceleration back in July.
2) BOP in TC2000 for the last two days shows significant selling.
3) TSV in TC2000 are hitting new lows. They are drifting down, not as fast as price though, so that at least might be a positive sign. But TSV is negative, and it is downtrending.
4) MACD is negative and downtrending.
My take is that CADE is definitely in a significant downtrend; the two support lines I mentioned above are also near a third key support line from 8/28's breakout and 9/17-9/19 retest of this breakout at about 2.44.
What it all amounts to is that CADE is testing three support lines that almost all converge in the same range: 2.4 - 2.5
All three were violated today, but all three ended up holding since CADE closed at 2.59
If cade falls through these lines, next support is at around 2.1
Three support lines might be tough to crack....hopefully.
CAVEAT: I might be wrong about some of this stuff, giving it my best shot but if I have said something off base, hopefully someone more knowledgeable will correct me!
-dave |
