Technical analysis for shorts & longs Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 691.88

-0.3%

Jan 30 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47453)	2/10/2012 4:47:10 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 70309

SP500 had a relatively wide trading range on the day, but it finished essentially where it opened indicating buyers matched sellers and the over all trend is undetermined. The uptrend is still intact and technically the high of May 2011 has been broken though just barely. The next 2 to 3 trading sessions should resolve the intermediate term direction. The breakout will either be confirmed or it will fail. DOW uptrend still intact. A sell signal would only be triggered on a break of 12,500. Still no new high on the DOW transports. The trend on this index is indeterminate today due to the inside day. The index is in a consolidation pattern. It feels heavy as it have tracked sideways for about a week. Without a catalyst it will fall under its own weight and trigger a sell signal. COMPQ continuing to power to a new high on accelerated volume. The trend is up and it does not pay to fight the trend. I find it hard to enter anything at this point though given the run the index has had. It is hard to find laggards with good momentum and fundamentals. That fact that the DOW lead the current rally and leadership changed to the COMPQ is good. We need another sector rotation to keep the overall market moving higher. I still don't like the financials as a group, but I won't fight the trend either. Financials have broken the down trend channel and are in an up trend. There is overhead resistance at this level. Gold has fail to break the down trend channel and is a falling back into the channel. Seasonally I believe this quarter is weak for gold as the Chinese and Indian wedding seasons have not started yet. Technically it looks like it could at least fall to 1635.

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