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Technology Stocks : Formerly About SanDisk

SNDK 175.49

-0.6%

Oct 28 3:59 PM EDT

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To: sylvester80 who wrote (1015)	2/13/2012 10:47:12 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (6) of 1161

Sylvestor, MLC must come down in price for SSDs to take off. So yeah, of course that is what is happening. The real question (as I've said repeatedly in the past) is not whether that will happen, the real question is, will the price fall faster than cost? The only way that would happen is if there is too much supply at a price that still makes SSDs uneconomical, forcing the vendors to sell their excess supply at a loss. As Luczo has pointed out, the HD market is so large that it would take many more fabs than currently exist or are on the drawing board to actually meet the demand that SSDs will eventually have to meet if it actually takes over the HD market. So, the ultimate question becomes, at what point (if ever) can NAND be produced efficiently enough to take a large part of that market? If that answer is, e.g., 19nm (or 20nm), then any oversupply of NAND that may occur in a transition period this year while qualifications are happening will be brief.

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