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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 396.31-0.6%Dec 31 4:00 PM EST
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To: Follies who wrote (87171)2/13/2012 11:26:13 AM
From: Joseph Silent2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 218913
 
I think you are confusing philosophy and practicality.

Freedom means you can think (and do) whatever you like. Education provides a framework by which you may make progress. A conflict between the two will quickly show you how far you can get.

Certainty in philosophy is impossible. Is there a certainty that the universe will exist tomorrow? No more than there is a certainty that the universe exists now. Is there a certainty that we will elect a republican or democrat president in November? Maybe not certain, but I wouldn't bet against it, that's practical certainty.

We can play with wordy rubbish forever or we can be precise and settle it. Let us be precise.

MQ wants to predict the probability of an ice age in 2020. Let A denote the event in question, let t denote time. So what MQ (and, by hind-admiring extension, you :)) want to determine is P(A(t) = 1) for t = 8.

Please list all the events that this probability depends on, to begin with. You cannot exclude a single event because your computation would be wrong. Not only that, you have no idea what the effect of the missing events would be. Next, provide a structure showing the joint distribution of the events. Remember to account for the fact that you have a time-varying process, and you have to tell us whether you are going to believe things are stationary or they are nonstationary. It matters. You see, in the end, every single thing matters.
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