A couple of weeks old, but still describes the new primary rules.
New rules will lengthen highly contested GOP race
BY TOM TROY
BLADE POLITICS WRITER - Published: 1/29/2012
toledoblade.com
The heated contest for Republican delegates could stay heated long enough for both Michigan and Ohio to become important in the selection of the party's nominee to take on Democratic President Obama in November.
The aura of certain eventual victory disappeared from the campaign of Michigan native Mitt Romney with Newt Gingrich's victory last week in the South Carolina primary.
Presidential primary 2012
And party officials are saying that the new "proportional" rules for winning delegates is going to stretch out the GOP campaign far longer than in 2008.
Michigan's primary is Feb. 28, and Ohio voters go to the polls March 6.
"Based on what we saw last week this thing will continue to roil along for quite some time," Kevin DeWine, the Ohio Republican chairman, told The Blade.
He said the political competition is making the candidates stronger, and getting the party more engaged, which will pay off in a more energetic electorate in November.
"I think to have a hotly contested primary is healthy for the party," Mr. DeWine said.
A candidate must win 1,144 delegates to claim the party nomination at the GOP national convention set for Aug. 27-30 in Tampa.
As of now, former House Speaker Gingrich has 23 delegates, Mr. Romney 19, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum 13, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul 3.
That arithmetic means candidates will have to continue working hard for delegates at least through March 6, Super Tuesday, because only 15.5 percent of all the Republican Party's delegates will have been awarded before March 6. On March 6, the number of awarded delegates will more than double, to 36 percent. Eleven states, including Ohio, have their primary elections on Super Tuesday.
Under the Republican Party's rules, delegates are awarded semi-proportionally rather than winner-take-all.
Ohio's 66 delegates will be awarded as follows:
• 48 will be selected by congressional district. Each of Ohio's 16 congressional districts gets three delegates and the top vote-getters in those districts get all three delegates.
• 18 at-large delegates will be awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote -- unless one candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, in which case that candidate gets all the at-large delegates.
Candidates Romney, Gingrich, and Paul qualified for all 16 districts in Ohio. Mr. Santorum did not have enough signatures to file in three congressional districts, including the 9th District.
Mr. DeWine said the frontrunners will shoot for as many delegates as they can win statewide. He said the two lower-tier candidates could possibly focus some effort on winning one or more congressional districts.
"The proportional allocation of delegates really draws the process out. We're no longer winner take all," Mr.DeWine said. "It means someone can come in and spend time and energy and money -- a Ron Paul or a Santorum -- but with not enough money to compete in six or seven media markets and win delegates. I think that lends itself to these folks coming in and spending time in Ohio."
He said it's mathematically impossible for anyone to get enough delegates to secure the nomination before the end of April anyway.
Neither he nor the party has endorsed a candidate. Mr. DeWine said Republican voters, as well as Gov. John Kasich, are looking for a candidate "who can carry a clear narrative on jobs and manufacturing."
U.S. Sen. Rob Portman last week endorsed Mr. Romney and campaigned for him in South Carolina.
Mr. Romney was in Ohio at least twice in 2011, including Oct. 25 when he avoided taking a position on the unpopular Issue 2 ballot question to roll back state employee collective bargaining rights. The following day, Mr. Romney said he "fully supports" the issue, which was defeated in November.
Mr. Gingrich campaigned in Ohio in 2010 for Mr. Kasich. In that appearance, Mr. Gingrich lectured the crowd on American "exceptionalism," and suggested that the food stamp should be the new symbol of the Democratic Party and the paycheck the symbol of the Republican Party.
Mr. Romney is scheduled to speak to the Cuyahoga County Republican Party's Lincoln Day Dinner Feb. 16.
"I think a lot of the others are going to begin to engage more heavily after Florida," said Christopher Maloney, spokesman for the Ohio Republican Party.
Bobby Schostak, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, said in an emailed response to The Blade that he is excited about the primary.
"Michigan is ground zero for Obama's failed economic policies and this was on display when we hosted the Presidential primary debate two months ago," Mr. Schostak said. He said Mr. Obama's "trillion dollar stimulus plan accomplished nothing and has proven to be nothing more than a major disproportionate waste of tax dollars."
Democrats are certain to contest that version of the recovery under President Obama and have already trumpeted the success of automakers General Motors and Chrysler since getting federal taxpayer assistance in 2009.
"Michigan voters are more sophisticated than what the Obama campaign gives them credit for. Michigan voters realize that Romney supports the auto industry but he was opposed to government intervention in the free markets," Mr. Schostak said.
Mr. Schostak said Mr. Romney is well known in Michigan with strong family roots and a good organization, but that won't guarantee him the nomination.
He said Mr. Gingrich has appeared in Michigan "many times" since 2006, while Mr. Santorum will be the guest speaker at the Oakland County Lincoln Day Dinner and Mr. Paul has for months had a "ground-game organization" in Michigan.
Michigan is one of five states that are being penalized for their early primaries, along with New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Arizona. Although Michigan will lose half of its voting delegates, it plans to send the full delegation to the Republican National Convention.
Between now and Feb. 28, when Michigan and Arizona Republicans vote, the states of Florida, Maine, Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota will vote. By then a total of 252 delegates will have been awarded. Arizona will add 29 and Michigan will add 30. Washington state follows March 3 with 43 delegates.
On Super Tuesday, 466 delegates will be dumped on the GOP table, with voting taking place in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming.
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