"gasoline consumption reflects recession and growth."
So what should we do with the gdp, trucking, rail, manufacturing, initial unemployment claims data?
There's only one response if you believe we're in a recession; the government is lying (except about the gasoline data).
Confirmation Bias: The Bias to seek information that confirms your belief.
Confirmation bias recipe?
Belief + Emotion + data contrary to belief = Seeking confirmation of challenged belief = confirmation bias. Could also be an example of the backfire effect cognitive bias.
So in this case;
First believe that we're in a recession because it's repugnant to think that current politicians could contribute to an economic expansion. But wait, positive gdp after gdp , manufacturing expanding, so that can't be right. Aha! Gasoline proves that we are in fact in a recession!
Same thing with the employment #'s. If you believe employment has to be bad because of lousy, disgusting policy, then no set of data will convince one that unemployment is getting better. The only possible explanation is that the government is conspiring, lying, the data is wrong, etc.
Falling gasoline data will have some mundane explanation, and it will not be "austerity". |
