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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (163960)2/15/2012 9:13:26 PM
From: t4texas3 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 206338
 
perhaps you are familiar with lakshman achuthan of the economic cycle research institute, ecri. they made a recession call in early september 2011, and he said their long lead indicators tell them there is nothing policy makers can do about it. i saw him say that on cnbc. you can see an update video on bloomberg featured on the ecri home page, businesscycle.com. i expect another update sometime soon on tv, but i will wait because i am not a subscriber. these guys are good, and they are really going to be tested this time.

i recall back in the summer of 2010 when the markets went down, and everyone thought the markets were saying a double dip recession was coming. lakshman came on tv in july or august (i recall) 2010 and proclaimed there would be no double dip. it seemed like a tough call at the time, and he was right. i have been amateur following what lakshman says on tv since maybe 2008. he has been very good. the ecri website says they have never made a wrong call on expansion or recession using their indicators.

i remember one thing lakshman said in the summer of 2010. it was that the business cycle is stronger than the government trying to mess with it. he said this to give support to his long lead indicator's ability to predict the future of the biz cycle's not going into recession at that time.

so lakshman now claims his long cycle indicators say we are going into recession with nothing the politicians and govt. can do about it. in this video i believe he says if we are not in recession by something like may/june, then he will be wrong. you can see the WLIW chart on the home page.

businesscycle.com
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