"I look back at some stocks that seem to meet Spooner's criteria and that I could've bought them 30, 40 or more years ago, and if I just held on, I would've done really satisfactorily at this point in my life. Better than really good if I had reinvested dividends and/or bought dips."
Yes. But...
...you knew there is going to be a but... :)
Look at the 10-15 year charts of KO, MSFT, JNJ and repeat the above. Hell, I am not even talking about Kodak, XRX or Polaroid.
Universal global appeal
Instant name brand recognition
Products or services you "dispassionately believe" will continue to be in demand "for years"
All three criteria satisfied. All three criteria satisfied for 15 years looking back! Not even the future prediction nonsense. We know these companies have had universal appeal, instant brand recogniztion and products in demand. And the stock prices went exactly nowhere.
Would you be confident to advise someone to hold KO, MSFT, JNJ for another 20 years and expect that they will have a good return after 30 years are all said and done?
It's not as simple as Buffett-Spooner-concentrated portfolio proponents try to make it sound.
And, yes survivorship bias rules. |
