i think we are in the 'end-game'. just that the end-game shall last between 6-14 years, plux / minus, give / take, close enough for most practical salvation seek
there is a hint of end-game in below e-mails
From: J
Sent: Sunday, February 19, 2012 10:26 AM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of Feb. 21 - recover, recover not
the script supposed runs so:
(i) fiat money inflation
(ii) productive capital devolves to speculation capital and to run-away m.i.a. or d.o.a. k.i.a. capital, and to cowering/sleeping/hiding capital
(iii) savings are pulverized by still more fiat money inflation in attempts to revive investment
(iv) fiat money inflation vaporizes all not opted out, ran away, or otherwise sleeping in secret places
chinese capital / fiat money running to n.america, wagered in europe, tee-ed up in resource markets, chasing own tail in all manner of china plays (to any extent that nyc and la and sfo real estates are 'china plays'
russian moolah sabbatical in london
american bread decamping tyranny
european scratch vaporized in ... greece, shipping, wherever, but all gone
japanese savings phase-change to ... spare change
and so assets bob and weave, zig then zag, 'recover' before 'recover not'
the monies, in whatever form, as long as in paper state, are fated to ... i best stop ... too ugly to contemplate ... rated 'extreme violence'
and in above context, jobs disappear ... 'vaporize', for that is the currently accepted term
From: J
Sent: Sunday, February 19, 2012 10:10 AM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of Feb. 21 - get ahead of the curve
<<The big surprise in all of this is how a tiny percentage of productive citizens can still create enough wealth to avert a complete breakdown and keep the sense of overall wealth intact>>
... am guessing that many of the productive and enough of the unproductive are gradually but surely bias-ing toward hiding capital, putting capital to deep nap, and in all cases edging in the 'away' direction,
even as all, including governments, hedge funds, vulture funds, high-frequency home-flippers, and all manner of scoundrels, knaves, and cloud atm extractors are doing double time to aggregate the diminishing goodies still on the table,
at some juncture, perhaps at the tipping point, maybe beyond the horizon of defining event, certainly ever closer to the definitive crisis singularity, suddenly and cardiac arrest style, all production stops and all bids 'vaporize'
there is that word again, 'vaporize'
then starts the screaming, shouting, devolution to whimpering, and dissolution to all-quiet one morning when the markets open for nothing
recommendation: run, in the away direction; opt out, in the away direction; put capital to sleep; cower, be very quiet, and get ahead of the curve
J
From: b
Sent: Saturday, February 18, 2012 11:17 PM
Subject: RE: Comments - Week of Feb. 21
Yep... but I found it fascinating that they couldn't even publicly account for half of the participation rate drop since 2000, even with as loaded a shovel of BS as they could create.
From: W
Sent: Saturday, February 18, 2012 8:11 AM
Subject: RE: Comments - Week of Feb. 21
Absolute bs. Reality is because of low savings and unfunded/underfunded retirement plans all the evidence points to seniors working longer. More disinformation from the banking cartel.
w
From: b
Sent: Saturday, February 18, 2012 11:06 PM
Subject: RE: Comments - Week of Feb. 21
From the Chicago Fed:
The authors conclude that just under half of the post-1999 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate, or LFPR (the proportion of the working-age population that is employed or unemployed and seeking work), can be explained by long-running demographic patterns, such as the retirement of baby boomers.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/large/ExplainingTheDeclineInTheU.S.LaborForceParticipationRate_cflmarch2012_296.pdf
So over half of the labor participation rate seems to have no Fed approved explanation... hmmmm...
Attached are an hypothesis of U3 & U6 real unemployment rates based on no change in participation rate from the 2000-2008 average.
Also attached (may have sent these before) are wide charts showing the wild variance since 2000 in seasonal factors, plus two misc. ones..
From: H
Sent: Saturday, February 18, 2012 2:22 PM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of Feb. 21
Indeed they are. It is no longer true that more businesses are created than are dying.
And the problem for small businesses - the biggest creators of employment - is not tight credit (it was for a time after the GFC, but hasn't been for a while), it is the great uncertainty created by massive interventionism in the form of ZIRP and deficit spending and the encroachment of bureaucratic red tape that has become truly staggering in the US and Europe. I used to say that Europe was worse (as I noted elsewhere, a recent study has shown it is easier to start a business in Lukashenko's quasi-socialist Belarus than in nominally capitalist Austria), but I'm no longer sure. US licensing regulations are a nightmare for instance. Permit requirements are often absurdly complex. It is all designed to stop start-ups in their tracks and protect established businesses. This is inimical to consumers and living standards.
The only sector that seems still exempt from these obstacles to a considerable degree is technology, because it progresses so fast that the bureaucrats are always one step behind in their attempts to regulate it to death. But that doesn't mean they won't try, see the recent attempts to introduce PIPA, SOPA, and ACTA, all laws and trade agreements that are designed to protect established business interests - luckily other powerful business interests were threatened by these laws and internet users realized that they would alter the internet to the great disadvantage of consumers. So the protests were great enough to stop these in their tracks, but they will surely try again later, perhaps with slightly watered down versions of the same laws.
To give you an example how perverse it all has become: a tiny nation like Austria (8 m. inhabitants) produces 10,000 pages of new laws and regulations at the federal level every year, and a roughly similar amount in each of the nine provinces. Every year! It has become impossible to know what is still legal, but not much can be left by now. This is the one area where the bureaucrats are astonishingly productive.
All over Europe regulations and taxes are so onerous that giant shadow economies have evolved. Not a single small / medium sized business can afford to be 'honest' (in the sense of following all the red tape to the letter and paying all then taxes it should). If they were, they'd all be out of business inside a year. Everybody know this of course, and there is a kind of 'negative lottery' going on, as to which business will be subjected to a tax audit. The costs of such an audit are part of business calculation these days. It is all a huge waste of effort and resources.
The big surprise in all of this is how a tiny percentage of productive citizens can still create enough wealth to avert a complete breakdown and keep the sense of overall wealth intact. It is testament to the power of the market economy that even when it is hampered to such a degree it still delivers the goods.
On Sat, Feb 18, 2012 at 4:38 AM, M wrote:
H noted this article from the Cleveland Fed:
clevelandfed.org
My question is, "how does this square with the "birth-death" input numbers assumed in the BLS numbers?
It appears that as of 2010, they still were assuming 537,000 net new businesses opened that year (page 3):
bls.gov
I'd say that the BLS assumptions are in direct contradiction with this piece from the Cleveland Fed.
Thoughts?
M
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