Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 337.22

+1.6%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (55531)	2/20/2012 1:38:28 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95730

Don, for a lot of us the real question now is how much longer before we get a significant decline? Last year we had a bunch of high volatility days where the market would move 2-3% or more, on the major averages in a single day. Now we have gone something like 35 trading days in a row without as much as a 1% decline. Many traders who follow this thread recently took profits and are now hoping for a pullback. Is the pullback ever going to come? It has to. It's hard to convince oneself to buy a stock that has already gained a significant amount in a few months like MTSN when actual earnings are unlikely to ever be anything but cyclical. Just as hard to buy one that has not gained all that much like WFR when the future is cloudy (pun intended due to solar related sales). Selected stocks are moving higher, higher and higher still. Many indexes and sector ETF's are at, or near, the highest levels since the rally that began back in 2002. The market is not rational. It can climb well beyond any rational levels with a complete lack of actual drivers. Some, would say that we have extremely low interest rates, low inflation and a wall of worry to climb. If my own personal wall of worry were what the market rallied against then the SOX would be at 2000 instead of roughly 1/3 the price it hit back in 2000. Honestly I do not think there is much meaningful, measurable worry out there now at all. It's just that complacency can get even more profound before a market hits it's irrational highs. RtS

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