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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Mattyice who wrote (46798)	2/29/2012 9:57:11 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) of 78476

Hi Matt - I assume your spreadsheet analysis was for SU. The EK$ value for SU I calculated is $40.49. The tangible BV I used was $22.78 (vs BV of $24.79). I used the 12/2012 avg earnings estimate of $3.20/share. Estimates are all over the board and fluctuate between $2.14 and $4.20. A lot depends on the avg price of Oil over the period. Therefore, SU still is undervalued by 10% to the EK$ but at $30.00/share was a lot more attractive. I too accumulated shares under $30 but only accumulated a 50% position. CVE shows an EK$ value of $23.52 so w/ a market price of $39.00 it is one that is not very attractive for me. Another good resource to check valuations is the McDep reports: mcdep.com Here is a recent report they did for Candian Oil Sands Ltd (COSWF) mcdep.com Nexen, Inc. Common Stock (NXY) came in with a good EK$ value of $26.71. My continued favorite is COP w/ an EK$ value of $94. COP is my No 2 position in the portfolio. Remember, like the McDep analysis, the EK$ is just the first step in what I use to try to determine fair value. I started positions in both SU and COSWF early this year because their operations are located in a politically friendly area (ie Canada). Continue to post your undervalued candidate companies as there are still many out there. You can confirm your valuations looking at the McDep ratio (less than 1.0 is undervalued). EKS

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