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Biotech / Medical : 2012 Biotech Charity Contest

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To: Chris08 who wrote (197)2/29/2012 1:52:03 PM
From: pgo-neil   of 513
 
>Biomaven, BioJim and Fred are the three with VVUS in their portfolios.<

Biofish has VVUS as a 10% holding. So there are four portfolios.

But really, none of this article is close to a slam dunk. And even if VVUS gets bought out for a high value, that money is invested in the remaining portfolio entries, so there is some risk that rocket fueled portfolios which gain significant altitude with a first stage, experience difficulties with a second stage ignition. :-( :-)

In my RW account, I sold a third of my VVUS position just because I have gotten more disciplined at taking some profits. So now the question is how to lay off more risk, but keep the expected reward. Options look a little pricey. An April $20 put is about $3.00. What happens if the FDA delays its PDUFA response past that opex date? The time table for Europe has already slid about 2 months to the right.

VVUS also has another PDUFA date [for Avanafil] in late April, so the next 60 to 90 days should be very volatile [see Rocket Fuel analogy above; ISP > 420].

This has been a most interesting year in only 2 months.

Best,
graham
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