And to think I almost didn't even check the board today! What luck!
Look, it's your money so you lose it as you please. True, some of the shallow water drillers may suffer some, but your bearish case has already taken these stocks down at least 20% and in some cases more. Now you come onto the seen, read the bearish case and decide a short sounds like a good idea. I think you are a little behind the curve, that news is already in the stocks and probably more. Funny how every analyst on the street says this was a fund driven selloff and nothing more. Maybe they're just all idiots and don't possess the cognative abilities that you do. However, they sure knew before anyone else (me included) that GLM (? can't remember) had not immediately resigned a rig this summer and that hour we got the summer selloff. While that turned out to be nothing, there will be a backbreaker eventually, but not anytime soon. Believe me, if there was some negative news out there, analysts would be downgrading the sector and not upgrading as they did to several stocks on Thur and Fri. Your shorts will only make our Christmas more festive. Good Luck, and don't let things get too out of hand. Note the following article. Read the co's comments in particular:
-Lucretius
(just a few more idiot producers willing to commit to L-T K's at higher dayrates. You should really contact their exploration execs and fill them in on your oil scenario so they could stop drilling.)
HOUSTON, Nov 21 (Reuters) Noble Drilling Corp said on
Friday that it had received letters of intent from Royal
Dutch/Shell Group RD.AS 's Shell Deepwater Development Inc
and Amerada Hess Corp AHC.N for two deepwater rigs in the
Gulf of Mexico.
The dayrates for the rigs have yet to be agreed, a
spokesman for the company said.
"We are pretty close to having an agreement, it will be
better than the previous rates," said Steve Manz head of
investor relations at Noble.
The Noble Jim Thompson will be contracted to Shell for
three years once the conversion of the submersible rig has been
completed in the fourth quarter of 1998 or the first of 1999.
Shell has an option to extend the contract.
The Noble Max Smith will be contracted to Hess and a
partner for five years from the third quarter of 1999.
Both rigs will be capable of working in water depths of
6,000 feet.
The drilling sector has alarmed by the new building of rigs
and Chevron Corp's statement that it would underspend its 1997
exploration budget, industry analysts said.
However, Noble said it was not experiencing any weakness in
its markets, which are mainly deepwater.
"For Chevron they are cutting back on SHALLOW WATER and
some BARGES, the dayrate on our contract for a jackup rig has
gone up from $25,000 to $65,000," said Manz.
Noble also said it has a letter of intent for a six month
contract, with options to extend, for drilling operations in
the Gulf of Mexico for the jack-up Noble Leonard Jones.
It is undergoing refurbishment and is scheduled for
delivery in January 1998. |
