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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (10238)	11/23/1997 8:21:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Bill, Dangerous picture- I agree. But many voices on this thread (myself included) have been shouting LOOK OUT BELOW in vain for what seems like ages. The public seems to be blind and one of best phrases I've seen on SI said: "In the land of the blind the one eyed person sells to soon". I wrote a bullish post a week ago predicting OEX 910-915 on Thu, and Fri down. The bulls' stampede took out all resistances, and 5 EMA crossed over 21 EMA giving a buy signal on Tue. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE! It is agreed in these parts that valuations are ridiculous, but here's a reminder anyway: 1. Price/Book at all times high and climbing (buy back programs increasing this ratio even more, and let's not forget employees' options) 2. MSFT's CFO declaring the price of the stock is too high. 3. Highest public exposure to stocks ever. 4. Fed says stocks are 20% overvalued. It'll end in tears. IMO the last opportunity for correction to rational valuations was in September, but the market bounced off SPX 900 the day after labor day and now even the external push from EAsia is looked upon as a buying opportunity. The smart money is bailing for quite some time. Mr. Gates and Mr. Allen have transformed together over $1.2B of equity into cash in July-August. Mr. Buffett has allegedly bot $2B cash value stripped bond. What did he sell instead? Re: VIX The volatility jolt of the mini crash is subsiding. I couldn't find any prediction power in the VIX. It rather looks like a trailing indicator. A full scale crash occures when the market can no longer support itself and implodes, not by an external force like war or overseas crashes. Get ready for the Millennium Crash. All the excesses will have to be wrung out of the market. It'll take years. Dow 6500 will not be the end, it would be the beggining. Take another look here: the-privateer.com Excuse the odd mix on this post. ATG

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