| Coal and NG stocks got hit again, I bought that coal stock I sold yesterday with the 6%+ drop JRCC it is now down 77.14% from the start of 2011 and if we go back a few more years it is down over 90%. You know if you lose 90% you need close to 1000% to get your money back. This is 1 coal company, but the whole sector is pretty beat up, if we are @ the bottom I have no idea but it is not going to matter a few years from now. Like peak oil we are near peak coal China is using roughly 4 Billion tons a year and been pretty much using what they produced, but this is going to change pretty quickly with a 10% growth rate. There has been talk of China nearing peak coal, if they are there now or it is 5 years away I don’t know, but what I do know is they will be importing much more coal 5 years from now than the small amount they do today. You know a 10% growth rate =s roughly a double every 7 years, so 4 billion becomes 8 Billion. It is not just China, India is increasing there consumption @ an alarming rate never mind the other developing countries. Buying coal companies @ a fraction of book right now is a dream, but you know commodities are a weird animal they always over shoot in a big way, so got to buy slowly. All this talk of regulation and low NG prices is killing coal stocks but the truth is we will be using much more coal 10 years from now and it will be hitting all time highs in price. So, IMO coal and NG should be bought, but only buy rational buyers because they can go much lower because the market is nutz. Kind of scary looking out 50-100 years from now what the world will be like with limited resoures, I dont think it is going to be as rosey as Mr. Buffet believes. |
