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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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From: Robohogs	3/4/2012 7:30:12 PM
	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 206181

Just did some work on ATPG numbers - expected increase in production bt 2013 include 6,000 barrels of real oil for well just announced - 15% of 7+K is gas - and 14ish K from Clipper when gas heavy nature is factored in. Assuming $70ish of EBITDA per barrel, you get $1.4 million per day or approx $500 million per year to add to $400 million give or take. Debt at 9/30 was $2.7-2.8 billion increasing to about $3 billion with expansion of ORRIs and first lien debt. Add in the pref and common and ignoring the cah, you get about $3.4-3.5 billion which is just under 4x, which is not abnormally cheap but also not super expensive. Profits from Clipper may be lighter given delivery issues. But, if they can inrease latest Telemark well or fix other well issues, it all flows to bottom line. With equity only 10% of EV, look out if this happens. Massive leverage cuts both ways. Jon

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