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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 236.03

-1.4%

11:00 AM EST

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To: DavidG who wrote (24388)	11/23/1997 11:10:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) of 53903

David, FWIW I think the 66-Mhz/100-Mhz angle could be interesting to watch play out going forward. At the very least, it adds another dimension. In the 66-Mhz SDRAM's, you've still got overcapacity, but maybe the pricing pressure relents as a result of the some of the Asian fallout (tighter capital which forces more disciplined expansion decisions). In the 100-Mhz product, I'm still wondering how realistic the argument of a supply shortage caused by a lack of certain test capacity is? I'm not into the stuff deep enough to know which specific test step(s) is at issue, but if that's a valid argument, you could have a situation where there is more than ample capacity on the front-end, but capacity constraints come on test; so ironically in a way there could simultaneously exist both over-capacity and a capicity shortage in this product. And the early winners in the 100-Mhz SDRAM are the players who can reliably deliver in volume. Maybe? I guess, I'm hung up on how serious a concern the PC-100 test issue is. Then I guess you get into the question of when and/or where the 100-Mhz speed SDRAMs are going to start increasing in importance Assuming that the sub-1000 PC's will still use the 66-Mhz's. But when does INTC start rolling out chipsets that require the faster speed? Which markets are they aimed at (assuming high-end desktops + server/workstations)? And when do they reach enough critical mass in terms of the overall market that the memory players start getting rewarded or punished based on their ability to meet this demand? Just throwing out questions. Good trading, Tom

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