The coming US dollar crisis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis

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To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (44705)	3/8/2012 3:04:43 PM
From: ggersh	Read Replies (1) of 71454

The country that wont go away.... Greek "Fresh Start" Bonds Face Immediate 80% Loss, 98% Probability Of RedefaultSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/08/2012 - 13:37 Bond CDS default Eurozone Fresh Start Greece Gross Domestic Product As 'news' breaks of over 80% participation in the Greek PSI deal and the apparent optimism that this is somehow a good thing, we note that our analysis of what would happen from two months ago was exactly spot on. As the FT reports, "financial markets were already betting Greece would default again in the future. Grey market “when issued” pricing for the 20 new bonds were ranging from 17 to 28 cents on the euro, a highly distressed level, according to indicative quotes", which just happens to almost perfectly coincide with our view:"Which means that according to a generic bond yield calc, the price on the fresh start bonds post reorg will be... 17.9 cents of par, or immediate losses of over 80% the second these bonds break for trading from par." Given grey market bond and CDS pricing, this would imply a 98% probability of Greece redefaulting within the next few years.

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