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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9108)11/23/1997 4:24:00 PM
From: Rational  Read Replies (1) of 18056
 
Zeev:

YHOO is also making a profit of 3 cents per share. Even then, Son has reduced his exposure from 50% to 30% in YHOO. Softbank's stock price has plummeted from 12,000Y to ~7000Y per share as of the date of the article (July 1997?). The article says: "A couple of Softbank's investments are already bankrupt, and the company carries dangerous debt risks."

You can make a quick couple of cents of profits on an investment that does not need much investment, like Son did in YHOO-Japan. But, dramatically improving earnings on internet publishing is not easy because real brand name companies like IBM and Netscape have ventured into the most lucrative part of this business : e-commerce and advertisement. These companies know how to set up the Internet shops through powerful servers, more efficiently and effectively than companies like YHOO can do.

I am not saying that YHOO will not exist; they will and will do well. However, as soon as the market discovers future earnings visibility, they will be clearly disappointed and drive down the price to where it belongs, IMHO. We need to observe that Softbank has already reduced its exposure to YHOO and that Softbank's leverage is dangerous.

Sankar
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