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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting SPY for fun and profit.

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To: Seyda who wrote (97)	11/23/1997 5:16:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (2) of 346

Seyda: I could not read the previous post of mine you make reference to (the link you posted does not work) but I believe it is one in which I present some "back of the envelope" calculations showing that the probability that we see again a return of 27% or above during 1998 is small. Of course, if you are a "die hard random walker", my argument does not make much sense as market returns in non-overlapping time periods are presumably independent. If you want me to know what my opinion is, I will give you my "irrational gut felling": I am scared of this market and live trough a continuous internal strugle to try an stay away from trying to perform some kind of market timing manuver which I know is not very likely to work. I have, however, reduced significantly my net equity exposure through shorting some specific stocks. Of course, in doing so I am implying the market is not efficient. Based on what I have seen (take a look at any of the Y2K stocks that are being shorted heavily by people at Roger's and BFIT) I believe there securities that are priced inefficiently. This is of course a minority of issues. Regards, Pancho

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