Don, PMFJI. MSFT's secret is their ability to "freeze" the market. Even with all the bad news you see about delays in NT 5.0, the bugs in IE 4.0, the DOJ, ad nauseum, they "still" have the ability to "freeze" IS shops, "regardless" of CIO receommendations. The CF/CEO's don't wanna hear anything but MSFT now. Look how hard IBM/Lotus is trying to capture market (and mind) share. Novell went to sleep 2 years ago, and really only woke up a couple of weeks ago in my mind.
At best, they can salavage their Platinum resellers, and loyal base (enterprise that is). But they are not going after the low-end market.
"Upgrades and maintaining the existing base" aren't going to spike revenue.
Where is all the "new" revenue going to come from? That's their issue.
They didn't consider it before (unbelieveable as it may sound), but that's the entire issue. Growth. Not being measured or part of the "tech index" was a very big blow to them last year when they were taken off as a measurement to the financial community.
If they don't want to sell the company, then they should downsize even further, buyback a extensive amount of the outstanding shares, and limit their activity to the niche markets. Perhaps operating in this mode, they can rebuild a new "growth model" again (perhaps).
But a "comeback" to the old days? No, I think not any longer.
My .02 for the umpteenth time.
Regards,
Joe... |
