re: AAPL @ a half trillion in valuation? Absolutely. :)
Why is it absurd that Apple have a 1/2 trillion valuation? In fiscal 2011 (4Q210 to 3Q2011), they made 25B+ after tax, and fiscal 1Q2012 (4Q11), they make 13B. And the current running 4Q (1Q12 to 4Q12) they have a shot of making 40B+ and a PE of 12-15 is not at all absurb, especially with the growth rate that they have been doing.
It is a replay of IBM 370 era and Msft PC era in that consumer electronics are transitioning into computer driven gadget and IOS and the ecosystem is asserting their domination. We tends to compare spec on phone and tablet and TV. But at some point, we will also compare what we can do with a phone, a tablet and a TV. Right now I have an LG TV that can do 2D to 3D conversion, internet, hulu plus, netflex . It has a webbrowser and LG has an apps store and the TV can run apps. It is a computer disgusted as a TV. When the real Apple TV hit the market that run all the apple apps, all of a sudden I can do a lot more on the Apple TV than my LG TV. I don't know if Apple will succeed in their quest or not. But given the size of the electronic market, it is absurb (pun intended) to think that it is impossible for a company to be value in trillion dollar range (assuming that they can dominate the electronic gadget market and continue to extract the kind of profit margin that they have been getting).
I am not an apple lover at all. I use Android phone (Samsung) and I use PC. I don't own Ipod and I don't have any Apple gadget in my home yet. But I have a pretty significant position in Apple now because I see their product roll out this year as significant and market moving (for both the end market and their own stock). Just look at how the Ipad roll out and the chaos that it created for everyone else. The untold issue now is what is happening to other tablet makers. Everyone has been holding their breadth waiting for the Ipad announcement (so there is not much sales in 1Q12 up to now) and now the 2nd hand Ipad is hitting the market at a much lower price point. Any 2nd hand Ipad sales will take away a new tablet sales. At some point, the tablet market will have to consolidate. Nokia is rumored to be planning a Window 8 Tablet at the end of the year, but the initial runs is put to 200,000 units... Apple sell 15million + Ipad 2 in 4Q11. How can Nokia and anyone else compete on manufacturing cost (remember the components come from the same suppliers) with a puny 200K unit? |
