Biopicker,
Very nice summary. I agree with most of what you said and feel that
you hit several important points, namely, the increased cash
position and increased revenue from the added collaborations. The
shares outstanding have increased as well, correct? So while it
may not add so much _direct_ value, I do think that the _potential_
for value is much higher in the combined company. After all, that's
what we are buying today, discounted future cash flows.
I still don't quite understand why they had to _buy_ a company. Why
not collaborate? They might have avoided the "indigestion" that
comes from buying someone that is roughly the same size. However, it
worked out well for Arris when they bought Khepri, right? They
inked a deal with Merck for cathepsin K worth more than what they
paid for all of Khepri. So, who knows...
I should say that part of the reason that ARRS is low is because
their lead product, APC-366, is in deep trouble. The second generation
tryptase inhibitor looks much better but is further behind. I wish
they would just admit defeat with APC-366 and move on.
John |
