President Barack Obama Message Board

STOCKTALK

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Politics : President Barack Obama

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (111263)	3/23/2012 1:46:42 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) of 149317

I think there are many fundamental reasons why a recession is imminent. However, what I haven't focused on too much is that there are also many looming risks that have a decent probability of turning into negative exogenous shocks to the global economy. Here's my top 3 concerns: * ongoing European saga of the PIIGS, any of the major ones like Spain, Portugal, or Italia blow up and as Bush said, "This sucker's goin' down!" * China is slowing dramatically and has an ongoing property crisis that could blow up; I'm less worried about this, because China has $3 trillion in dollar reserves they can use to cushion the blow. So even if they blow up, the globe may not feel it for many years. * Israel may attack Iran. Those guys are trigger happy and Iran is one of their arch enemies. They won't allow further progress towards a nuclear Iran. Check out the article below for more recent info. MM, there are always risks to any economic expansion. That's why they say that Wall Street climbs a wall of worry. However, right now, I think the likelihood of expansion outweighs the risks to contraction. The economy seems to have turned a corner last fall and is getting stronger, not weaker.

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