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Mr. Brinker, I am honored and flattered that you responded to my comments. One never knows where the electrons that flow from my computer may end up. I guess it is no mystery that you would read this thread..kind of like watching your own biography written before your eyes!
I am 51 now. In 1964-68 I used Fortran for engineering applications. The business students used COBOL. I can only relate to the Y2K problem from the perspective of engineering and computer progress since those early days. I must admit, I have no "inside information" regarding the number of companies that continue to use COBOL programing today. I do remember working as a night janitor at a major food products distributor. The computer they used was in a climate controlled room with large data disks. I know today's desktop computers can do all the work that these "main frame" used to do. It is difficult for me to imagine that the programming code used in those machines have been carried forward and remain in use today.
Certainly in engineering, the new computer hardware (with increased speed and storage) has spawned new, better, and cheaper software. I know with absolute certainty that Fortran is not used in any engineering firm today. It is equally hard to believe that COBOL remains an active part of the business community. However, it seems I must re-visit my train of logic, in light of your comments.
Let me say how much I enjoy your show. Perhaps you saw my plea for a way to purchase transcripts for those of us who are unable to listen to your show on the weekends. Rest assured that give the choice, I would choose to listen to your show, rather than read about it. But for those times when we cannot listen, transcripts would be welcomed.
My father was a stock broker in Chicago his entire life. I worked at his office as a young man. Those were the days of ticker tape and charts that were hand-drafted on mylar with ink at the end of each day. Three million shares was a big day on Wall Street then. Personally, I enjoy hearing you speak of ideas, principles and concepts that my father used to talk about. Few people have taken the time to read some of the fantastic books written by the early stock traders (such as Dow himself). While times have changed, human psychology toward the stock market has not. For over 80 years, many very insightful people have studied the market. They have learned from the market, and spawned an array of tools and indicators to judge the market's health. You are the only market analyst I have heard who uses the well-tested concepts painfully developed over time.
There are several principles that my father used talk about, which I have not heard you mention. One is the "half-way correction". This idea was explained to me as "chart reading", a concept I know you do not espouse. The concept says that for a market trend to continue, periodic corrections are necessary. A healthy market will start at a low point (Jan. DOW = 6200) to a high (Aug. DOW = 8300), then retreat back to the mid-point of 7250 and then return to it's bullish climb. It seems like this "rule" fits todays market perfectly.
If the market were to now move back and "retest the lows", this would indicate a convergence point. In other words, the market would show that cannot decide which way it wants to go. This would be an indicator of high volatility. Just food for thought.
I enjoy your show...and I enjoy this discussion group. The ideas and knowledge of many learned people are focused here. Sarcasm also is alive and well ...particularly well focused at those prognosticators who are continually trying to explain why their crystal ball has miraculously cleared up since their last miscall. "Cautious optimism" and "neutral on the near term, but bullish on the long term" are two oxymoronic terms that seem to draw the greatest ire from this band of merry critics!
Best Regards,
Greg |
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