SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : President Barack Obama
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: tejek who wrote (111535)3/23/2012 10:07:04 PM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (1) of 149317
 
Is it possible for the US to escape recession, if there's a hard landing in China? I think not.

------------------
Even More Evidence of a China Hard Landing

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner

The latest container shipments into the port of Los Angeles and Long Beach confirm that China (and Asia) is no longer nearly as much in the game. Inbound is down 10% from last year and 20% from the same month in 2007. I do think a little marginal production has shifted to the US, but it isn’t really showing up in the data, as rail car traffic in the US is now down 1% YoY. Fed Ex says it will “reduce flight hours, and “park some planes” according to headlines on Bloomberg. It also sees weakness in tech, mobile phones, finance, insurance, and real estate, and it also anticipates below-trend growth.







Railfax:





Incredibly the “sistema” is being pulled out round the clock to circle the wagons explaining how China is just fine. The truth is that China has been in steady deterioration for over a year. The problem with China lies in its overcapacity, which so severe that a mere “slow down” is not possible. Since fixed asset investment is far more than this economy needs, when this falls it falls big, which is exactly what is happening. Do the following charts look like a soft landing 7% GDP growth scenario to a thinking person?





.



.





The myth is that the Chinese consumer can pick up the slack. Cement and steel production would be a function of housing construction activity and local vanity projects.





.



.

Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News