Yama-are-you-ichi:
Monday November 24, 9:30 am Eastern Time
Yamaichi cloud may have silver lining for Wall St
NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks may ultimately benefit from
Japan's woes as investors seek safer havens in U.S. stocks and bonds, analysts said.
Wall Street stocks were expected to open lower Monday following the failure of
Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd (8602.T).
MARSHALL ACUFF, MARKET STRATEGIST AT SMITH BARNEY:
''I don't expect any major effect from Yamaichi here. It's basically a Japanese problem,
and you can argue that sort of thing just reinforces the Japanese to buy U.S.
''The big issue here is ultimately the slowing growth in Asia and the impact that will
have over the next year or two.''
MARY BARTHELS, GLOBAL PORTFOLIO MANAGER, AVATAR
ASSOCIATES:
''The failure of Yamaichi and the collapse of 10-ranked Hokkaido Takushoku Bank
showed the government was starting to address Japan's financial problems.
''My near-term concern is how fast they can address the fears of the marketplace, and
that means using public funds. They are semi-reluctant to use public funds, but in my
opinion they are going to have to.''
-- POSSIBLE LOST DATA --
\000 Although U.S. markets will benefit as investors seek a safe
haven for their money, ''This is definitely not a silver lining for the U.S.,'' she said.
HARRY LAUBSCHER, MARKET ANALYST AT TUCKER ANTHONY:
''It (Yamaichi's failure) will have an initial impact but that should only last a few days
before we make another run up.''
MICHAEL METZ, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT OPPENHEIMER &
CO:
''The whole problem is that nobody knows what is going on at other Japanese banks
and brokerages. This is a cause for concern and should temper euphoria for the next
week. There could be some open-ended obligations, for which Wall Street will be left
holding the bag. When a customer goes out of business, there is always a question of a
write-off of receivables, but I don't think it will be anything major.''
Metz added, ''But in a sense, it is positive for investment firms doing business in Japan
and helps their status. Japanese investors are likely to be concerned about their own
firms and have more confidence in U.S. firms. Short-term, it's bad news; long-term, it's
good news. The (U.S. stock) market is also entitled to some sort of correction after a
four percent run-up last week.''
TONY DWYER, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT LADENBERG
THALMANN:
''This continues to be an overhang on the market. It has certainly been a dark cloud
over the past four weeks.
''But it will come to a resolution. Just because Yamaichi has filed for bankruptcy, it
does not mean that every investor will sell his or her U.S. holdings. There will be a
knee-jerk reaction and then a recovery.'' |
