Today's news on IMGN ought to signal the beginning of the end of the company's quest for their initial drug approval. I believe we'll see approval before the end of the year, and while AdamF may not agree, I believe the $20's are probable on approval, far more as T-DM1 replaces and expands on Herceptin over the next few years.
Much the same can be said for AEZS as within weeks we should have top line data for their trial. While AEZS doesn't have as many drugs in the pipeline, it soon will have the second major oncology product in Phase III as well as filing for approval on its second niche product, one is already approved and has had growing income each quarter. I'd say it's more likely to go over $10 than $20 this year, but don't figure it's far behind IMGN, and might even surpass it with either approval or a major partnership for AEZS-108.
AdamF has been negative on both these companies, but Adam really has less knowledge than most of us, his degree is totally unrelated to drugs and medicine, but like many Analysts, he sounds like he knows what he's talking about, and some people listen.
I cannot say how much Adam had to do with closing the gap created this morning, but it was amazing to watch how the best news IMGN has seen in years could be offset by the efforts of the MM's and people like AdamF to close that gap. While they did it, so we won't have to worry about the gap forever, we still made a nice gain, and I believe we'll see new 52 week highs well before the drug's approved, which should happen some time in the 4th quarter. I don't know that the same can be said for Perifosine, but if top line data's in by early May, a filing before the end of June may still be possible. Frankly if the data's as good as I hope and expect it is, the FDA might act in less than 6 months meaning a filing in July could still see approval in 2012, but if not, early 2013. It's more important that the NDA or BLA be done well than it be done quickly.
Gary |
