RtS, I certainly agree with you about one indicator not being enough.
<<But one indicator is not enough.>>
I like a lot of indicators both technical and fundamental. However, the chart presented is easy to read, and as the author pointed out, it is a conservative way of getting into the market.
Looking at the chart, I would argue the most compelling attribute is when the indicator makes a sharp dip, as it did in 2002 and later in 2008/09, and then recovers, the S&P-500 gains have been substantial for a number of years.
We are now potentially reaching another peak in the S&P-500 level. The 1400 level has been breached to the upside. It looks like there may be a little way to go yet to reach the ultimate peak, but bpNDX has been receding a little from the high of 98 to 94 to 88 to close at 86.
In between 2009 and today, the indicator has taken a couple of dips, and the S&P-500 retrenched a little. The last one occurring last summer and ending with the start of the fall quarter. The loss in the summer quarter and the subsequent gains of the fall and this winter quarter were just posted in detail in post,
Message 28050061
Looking back in hindsight, have you reviewed the indicators you use to see if, and how strongly, the strong upside of the last 6 months was forecasted? I was expecting a movement to the upside since the summer quarter was so negative, but I didn't expect the strength or length to be as positive as it was. Also, of course, the upside movement may have a little further to go, but I look for it to falter at any time.
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