To All, I am ending my participation on this thread. It has become less fun and as I mentioned before, my time is more constrained. Forget politics. Here are the investment ideas I leave going out:
1. Gotta be short oil or gasoline or long puts at some point. The stuff is overpriced and ex a war with Iran, cannot sustain this price. That makes me prefer puts, where the risk is less than in a short. War could happen. I still like natural gas for the long haul, but am limiting my holdings to a third right now.
2. T-Bills are very overpriced.. But they are so short term that you don't make a lot of money without betting a lot more than I want or can bet. The bonds seem to be resting after a mini crash in prices, but, on the next rally, I will either buy long puts or buy a reverse fund. Not double reverse, as last time. That requires too big a move too soon.
3. Large stocks are generally fairly or overpriced. I still have a few in my dividend capture portfolio, but am neither excited by them or scared. Names like MMM and ADP are buys for an options writing program on any dips.
4. I like some country CEFs and mutual funds. Russian, Turkey, Scandinavia and India remain my favorites. I have the least confidence in India, but when it does move up, it will move.
5. Real estate is not dirt cheap any more, but long term, commercial properties, ex China, look great.
6, China will crash. I am not long puts, yet, but am expecting a major realignment of markets with what they are producing.
7. I am holding gold and ASA only as an insurance policy. My guess is that the majority of the up move is over. There is probably more left on the companies than on the bullion.
Good luck all
MB |
