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Politics : Mainstream Politics and Economics
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To: koan who wrote (14311)4/2/2012 12:27:14 PM
From: koan  Read Replies (2) of 85487
 
I sent my son in law who is a research scientist in AGW charts showing arctic sea ice could be gone by 2015. He sent me back the following. There are lots of tipping points and we are playing with fire as far as our kids and grand kids go with this deniability.

I had told him I was worried about the arctic being so shallow warm water coming in from east and west could melt the methane hydrates. I was thinking about the arctic continental shelves.

<Crazy figure you sent me, thanks I had not seen that one. Arctic sea ice is changing fast.

To address your questions, the arctic is not THAT shallow. The "mixed layer" of the ocean (typically 100meters or less) changes temperature rapidly in equilibrium with the atmosphere. The deep ocean turns over on thousand year timescales due to circulation. Most of the clathrates you refer to are deep enough that it will take a long long time for heat to penetrate to those depths. That said, once put into motion there may be no turning back....

D
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