Compaq Message Board - Msg: 2805896

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To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (9393)	11/24/1997 1:15:00 PM
From: BILL CHOW	Read Replies (1) of 97611

Dwight: I was amazed at this discussion. I was going to stay oput of this. Now I am going to put in my 2 cents worth. People change not because of pressure or other prople's opinions. People change because of education. When will china become a democracy? Let's look at the picture from 1950 to now. For many years PRC was a closed society, partly due to their policy, partly due to embargo. There was no trade other than with Russia and through Hong Kong. It was extremely important that Hong Kong stay as it was at that period. Since Nixon recognized PRC, there was a lot more travel for the people in PRC. 2 indicators of thing to come: a. people visit US, Japan, England and other European contries brought back with them pictures that was different than what was presented to them by the propaganda. More students are studying abroad. This is the future of China. b. The old line Communist members are gone. People from the "Long March" are all dead. They are now in a transition period where the power brokers are educated by the "Long Marchers". The next generations will be governed by people who have seen the other side. They will not go back to Communism. Any attempt to speed up the process will upset the apple cart. The democracy movement in China is an example. The Deng was still alive. A few other "Long Marcher" were still around pulling the strings. A lot of a young people died. That was the price. It may have speed up the democracy process a little or not. The final result(democracy) is inevitable! USSR was closed society. They restricted travel and communications. They held out for a long time. Their change is more abrupt which may cause a backlash. But the final results will be the same. I came out of PRC in 1962. I was fed with "Paper Tiger" and others stories. It took me all of 2 years to understand the democratic process enough to reject communism totally. Will it happen soon? May be. When capitalism is working so well in China, what ideology can keep people from leaving communism? My vote is about 20 years the latest. 5 years earliest. Just start to read the obituaries. Cheers

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