Quarter by quarter, I think we will see a more level playing field in 2012. I am in agreement with you on Q1 being about 4 cents, but I believe we will see 3-5 cents for each of the remaining quarters. Here is my best case scenario: Last year’s two quarters, with only a half cent gain, were due to one-time re-organization expenses, as well as a lot of start-up costs for the new subsidiaries. QI may drop a penny due to decreased bond money (-1 cent), but this will be offset with a positive gain in SL (+ 1.5 cents) and Advent growth (+1.5 cents). After that, I think we can use Q3 2011 as our benchmark going forward: a 3 cent gain (after deducting one-time income tax benefit), take away a penny for bond cash decline but add at least 2 cents for SL and perhaps a half penny for Advent, if some of the late season bleeding stops. Add back another half cent for reduced startup expenses. This provides 5 cents a quarter beginning Q2. The bonus could be Mango Moving, but I have not factored that in. I had not completed this exercise before, but it paints a rosier picture than the 12-15 cents I had previously estimated: 19 cents NET in 2012.
I have re-posted GF's estimates below, since these are the ones I am commenting on:
"For 1Q 2011, the earnings were approx 2 cents/shares I'm guess 2 to 6 cents/share - so I'll go with 4 cents/share
For 2Q 2011, the earnings were approx 1/2 cent/share. I'll guess flat earnings.
For 3Q 2011, the earnings were approx 5 cents/share. I'll guess flat earnings.
For 4Q 2011, the earnings were 1/2 cent/share. I'll guess flat earnings." |
