"Independents are abandoning Romney (or not)
Posted by Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake at 06:30 AM ET, 04/05/2012
New numbers from a USA Today/Gallup poll of 12 swing states suggests that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is quickly losing support among independent voters — a voting bloc considered the crown jewel of the 2012 election.
Romney's number in Gallup polling has dropped 10 points among independents since last fall, while President Obama's number is up by nearly that same amount during the same time frame.
Romney's struggles among independents are due almost entirely to the fact that independent women, who were voting for him over Obama by 5 points last fall, now favor the Democratic incumbent by a 51 percent-to-37 percent margin.
Open and shut case, right? Well, that depends on which side of the partisan aisle you sit.
Democrats immediately moved to cast the Gallup numbers as the latest sign that the Republican presidential primary race — and its focus in recent months on contraception and women's rights — has damaged Romney's brand among independents and, in particular, independent women.
"Romney is in the midst of the perfect storm: He is being tied down by negative perceptions of a GOP that has been further damaged by the contraception controversy," said Democratic pollster Fred Yang. "His attempts to shake himself free of the GOP is being hampered because, well, Romney's image is the most polarizing among voters for a presidential candidate at this stage of the election in nearly 20 years."
Even the most optimistic Republican strategists acknowledge that the extended national debate on things like contraception and "transvaginal ultrasounds" has not been a good thing for their party because they have taken the spotlight off of Obama and his handling of the national economy.
"There has been increased focus on social issues not just from Romney or (former Pennsylvania senator Rick) Santorum but in individual states," said Republican pollster Linda DiVall. "When the focus returns to economic issues and (the) contrast between Obama and Romney's vision for the country, the gap will indeed narrow."
Some Republicans also take issue with the Gallup survey — suggesting that the sample size of 371 independents across twelve states is far too small to draw overly broad conclusions about the results. (Worth noting: The Gallup result is above the Post's internal polling guidelines for producing reputable results from subgroups.)
Wonky poll debate aside — and we love us a good nerdy poll debate about sample sizes — it's clear that, even though Romney is now the near-certain Republican presidential nominee, he has sustained damage (much of it not his own doing) in the process of getting to this point in the process.
That's not altogether surprising. The nature of the presidential race is that candidates court their bases to win the primary and then slide to the middle to appeal to independents in the general election.
But as Romney begins to shake off his primary opponents and focus full time on the general election, mission No. 1 must be improving his standing among independents — and, in particular, independent women."
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