What do I think about Teligent's situation? In one word, bad.
This company (and Assoc. Group) has been hyped up for months now to the point where the only place I see for it to go now is down. It seems just a very expensive play on Mandl. But for the company, I see no reason I'd want to own it. I'd expect it'll trade like WinStar, moving up on hype and news/rumors of consolidation/takeovers, and drift lower on no news.
If you wanted to play in this sector, I would much rather own WinStar. Much greater market coverage, much greater bandwidth, thousands of roof rights, interconnect agreements in place, most CLEC certifications in place, employees and sales teams built up, switches installed, and actual customers and revenues. And many years nearer to positive cash flow, which in most final analyses is what counts on Wall Street. Teligent has a long, long road ahead of it, and during much of this trip, the stock price will probably be going down. Mandl may have a great management team, but WinStar's is no slouch. It's just a long road with not many shortcuts, and WinStar's already come most of the way. I look back over where we've come from and would hate to have to start all over again.
My call; if I could get any odds, I'd bet TGNT will see 15 before 30. |
