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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP)

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To: Michael Burry who wrote (255)11/24/1997 3:46:00 PM
From: Christopher White  Read Replies (2) of 2068
 
Michael,

Yes, I do think that "hugh unpaid liabilities" means that many of the Wall Street professionals expect OXHP's loss ratio over the last 10 months to be over 1.0, meaning that the company has large, yet unrecognized losses which will impact the future performance of the company - these losses will mean more cash will have to go to the reseves, which is a liability, and less can be steared toward growing the company.

Technically, this stock is broken and doesn't look like it will have any life for awhile. Since the collapse at the end of October, OXHP's equivolume chart shows one large flat box after another, gradually heading downward, indicating both the bulls and the bears are exhausted. Both the 13 vs. 55-VAMA and the 3 vs. 22-VAMA are still bearish and the 100 day-EOM is also negative. Long term, if management can earn the Street's confidence back, OXHP could go back to say 50. Short term, however, I suspect the stock will languish in the 20-27 range...dead money.

Christopher
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