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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 691.72-0.1%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: robert b furman who wrote (47695)4/10/2012 10:08:34 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (3) of 69827
 
I think there is a bounce coming especially at the 1350 level for the SP500. I don't know if it is the pause that refreshes or just a pause before further downside.

Right now we would have to break through the recent highs on the indices before I get a buy signal. The lack of a high on the transports still creates concern for me.

There has been a shift in the psychology of traders. If you have heard the news in the last 2 weeks the emphasis has shifted to focusing on the negative news. Till we get through the first part of earnings season I don't think any traders will have the confidence to get long in any significant way.

Despite the second half of an election year being historical strong I don't see a reason to hold stocks through the summer.

I have stopped out of a lot of positions in the last 2 weeks. I am holding more cash than expected. Like you I am waiting before re-committing it to the market. If the world's economies are slowing down then it is difficult to see which sectors to put the cash to work in. Tech has been leading, but that leadership is based on increase technology spending by businesses. Slower growth changes that premise.
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