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Technology Stocks : Apple Tankwatch

AAPL 270.98

-0.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: pyslent who wrote (18832)	4/11/2012 6:01:42 PM
From: XoFruitCake	Read Replies (2) of 32692

Sure. And Apple can gouge as long as there are no substitute for their products. Why doesn't Samsung or HTC or Motorola have the same pricing power? I think this is the key to Apple against the Android and Window phone discussion. Just having the same hardware spec is not enough to derail the Iphone franchise at this point. All the window phone review I read talked about how well the interface work and how much it is like an Iphone with a cheaper price. But no one offer a real reason other than price to ditch an Iphone (some talk about the boring and familiar interface but that is about all I can get). For the high end market that Apple dominate now, customer can afford the phone so low price is not an overriding incentive (same for all the other high end Android phone Apple is in the driver seat and determine it's own future. If they can keep building Iphone that even the mid market consumer want to pay the extra and buy, we will continue to see iphone growth in the near future. How big a market share in any given year is going to be determined by the particular unique features that Apple can bring to the table at any given year. I think the natural high end smart phone market is about 30 to 35% of the overall smart phone market (i.e. folks just have money to burn in their pocket and willing to shop for the high end phone and low price won't be a determining factor. Corporate/government purchase go here.). And then there is another 30 to 35% of mid market consumer that is most like want to stay with low cost smart phone unless they see something irresistible and they will spring for the higher priced phone. Apple has about 23% of the WW smart phone market share in 4Q11. If they do well with 4S and Iphone 5, they should hit the 30-35% market share sometime next year. A market share grow from 23% to 35% with the smartphone market grow at may be 35% to 40% in 12 would mean a unit volume growth close to 100%. But in 13, if you think smart phone market will grow in the 20% and Apple market share grow from 35 to 45%, the unit volume growth will be "only" about 55%. And the $64,00 dollars question is what will happen to margin to achieve that growth when it push against the mid market (a irresistible feature or lower price?). 2012 looks to be the golden year for Apple. 2013 is going to be a transitional year that Apple will have to make some decision to whether to cut price to gain more market share or stay with the same market share and maintain the ungodly margin.

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