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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 337.35

-1.5%

Jan 20 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (55957)	4/15/2012 10:24:39 AM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 95743

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (4/14/12) amateur-investor.net The chart below shows the Monthly Federal Government Deficits or Surpluses going back to 1980. Notice even in the Reagan/Bush #1 presidential years more times than not the Government spend more money than it brought in. Under Clinton things improved somewhat. Under Bush #2 the Government spent a lot more than it brought in initially however things did improve slightly until his last year in office when spending increased dramatically. Meanwhile under Obama he is the first modern president to never have a single month in which the government had an actual revenue surplus which is truly mind boggling. Eventually this large amount of debt is going to become a problem because the government can't continue to spend like this and run up large deficits. As far as the market the S&P 500 is exhibiting three possible patterns. The first pattern is that an "abc" affair completed at 1422 which will be followed by a multi month correction with a test of the longer term upward trend line (black line). This trend line intersects the 50% and 61.8% Retrace from 1075 to 1422 in the the 1250 to 1207 range. A solid break below the 1340 area would increase the odds of this pattern evolving in the longer term. 1340 is near the 20 Week EMA (green line), 23.6% Retrace from 1075 to 1422 and was a key support area in early March. The second pattern is a Wedge as the recent pullback would be a 4th Wave which should not drop back below the low made early in the week at 1357. This would then be followed by one more higher high with 1450 a potential target for the 5th Wave. For this pattern to occur the S&P 500 would have to reverse strongly back to the upside early next week which doesn't seem likely at this point. The third pattern is a similar 5 Wave pattern from last October's low however the 4th Wave would turn into a more complex "abc" flat with key support once again near 1340 as I talked about above.

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