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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 337.35-1.5%Jan 20 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (55961)4/15/2012 2:31:31 PM
From: robert b furman1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 95743
 
Hi RtS,

Inflation comes in two kinds ;

1)Commodity
2) wage

Emerging markets have both,as we did in the 70's/80's.

We have wage deflation and an associated unemployment problem - wage inflation is at worst very delayed.

Commodity inflation is very linked to our Dollar - inversely correlated.

As Emerging markets find it necessary to increase their domestic rates, to tame wage inflation,we will find it possible to increment up our rates, which will tame commodity inflation and preserve or improve Dollar strength.

With an absence of both inflations or to a lesser degree than that of the emerging markets,our Dollar will rise with rates and the saver / investor class will once again have better buying power.

Austerity will not reward those relying on government transfers and savers will benefit marginally.

I agree with the statements rates are done going down and I believe treasuries will end their 30 year bull run very soon.

Stock markets can do very well in a rising rate environment as we come out of a prolonged recession and build confidence or at least lose fear.

Higher rates are a sign of recovery not global double dip recession / depression.

Bob
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