Without commenting on the merits pro or con of the NC, I have not seen anything that explains the financial model of the NC as it relates to Larry and/or ORCL.
Exactly where/when/how much does ORCL get on an NC sale?
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I wonder about the flattening of the DBMS industry. The entire industry is a multi-billion dollar/year industry, sure. But, sales of the DBMS products do seem to be relatively flat. Some of SYBS and IFMX troubles are of their own making, but a rising tide lifts all boats, and I don't know that the tide is rising so fast anymore.
I can see ORCL looking at the NC industry - they need someplace where they can generate an additional $5 billion over the next few years.
Look at IFMX - hell, if they can hit $800MM next year, it's a huge victory. ORCL needs to do $800MM every MONTH. That is an enormous appetite.
Check out ORCL revenue:
5/31/96 1.4 BB
8/31/96 1.0 BB
11/31/96 1.3 BB
2/28/97 1.4 BB
5/31/97 1.9 BB
8/31/97 1.4 BB
Hmmm... with the one quarter exception, it's been pretty flat - even with some down numbers. 6 quarters later, the revenue is in the same place...and profits are about 1/2 of what they were. At least now I understand why the stock has been flat for so long.
Does Larry the emperor have no clothes? Is this the purpose of the NC - to distract from the core software business problem? We know the applications business is growing, as is the consulting business. And, the accumulated annual support revenue is growing.
So, if the consulting and applications and service businesses are growing, and the overall business is essentially flat, what the heck is happening to the database business there? |
