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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 694.04

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47764)	4/19/2012 9:42:32 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) of 69663

Hi Johnny - I started tracking iShares Russell 2000 Value Index (IWN) and noticed it broke support today. This might be a good index to add to your daily reviews and it provides a snap shot of a larger population of small cap stocks. The key for me is the amount of downside volume as it begins to fill the gap lower. I expect the $SPX to eventually follow but IWN seems to be a good leading indicator of the general market trend. Hopefully we will test the $SPX 1340 soon so we can set up for a nice extended rally. Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) held support today and I expect this one to fail support soon too (around $14.95). I have been following your XLE comments with interest. I am not too sure where this is going to go, but it looks like it wants to eventually trade lower too. Last year we traded the WTI Crude at the year's high in the last week of April and then a steady fall in the price of crude. Excellent buying opportunities occurred in October 2011 for many of those small E&P companies. I picked up a lot then and sold most of the winners last week. I will be buying more of those at a 50% discount as oil moves lower (maybe with good buys again in October 2012?). The wild card will be some event in Iran. I think that is what is keeping crude above $100/barrel. Great job with the NG updates as I finally saw some divergence in XCO and the NG price. I think it was more options related than some other change in trend. I appreciate your daily reports with your level headed comments. You let the market dictate the trend and your conclusions. Although the call may be a day or two late, it is confirmed by the eventual move. Well done! Keep up the great posts, i now look forward to your observations. The IWN index for me has been a good indicator for the future trend signaling a move/breakout of the $SPX...check it out. EKS

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