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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Iceberg who wrote (3730)11/24/1997 8:46:00 PM
From: Thean  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Ice, the conditions for an oscilating indicator like Stochastics to work are:

1) Things behave normally - meaning no mad mo-money chasing higher highs nor panic fund managers booking their bonus rates at lower lows.
This one is violated big time.

2) An existing trend, either up or down. This one has to do with fundamentals and considering everything I know the long term trend is definitely UP. So this condition is not violated.

3) No secondary influencers such as a general market meltdown, e.g. Grey Monday; and little political or economic risks. This condition maybe violated with the Far East and Middle East problems.

Overall, I'm not saying go out and sell tomorrow. For a lot of us (myself included) who are sitting on some losses, there is a point where you want to say OK I'm not trading anymore because I believe the fundamentals are there and am willing to wait this out till January. If there is no bounce by the first week of January, we are in serious trouble because the fundamentals may indeed be shifted at that point. What I have chosen to do is to lighten up and basically break even on some of the drillers I picked up last week and keep some cash again. Heh, it didn't work out. There will be another chance.

A disclaimer: My holding period ranges from 1 to 60 days. Call me whatever you want.
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